* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TRUDY EP212026 10/15/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 84 85 89 90 89 81 68 57 51 49 49 49 48 47 45 45 V (KT) LAND 80 84 85 89 90 89 81 68 57 51 49 49 49 48 47 45 45 V (KT) LGEM 80 84 86 88 89 86 77 63 52 47 46 46 46 45 44 43 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 6 7 5 9 8 10 12 18 14 18 21 27 31 27 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 0 1 6 10 6 0 0 3 0 0 -4 -2 2 3 SHEAR DIR 192 132 142 158 156 176 174 180 201 219 228 247 263 255 273 263 230 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 29.0 29.5 29.8 29.9 29.7 30.0 30.4 30.0 29.7 29.6 29.3 28.9 28.7 28.9 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 152 157 161 163 161 164 168 162 158 157 154 150 148 150 157 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.2 -51.3 -51.5 -51.2 -51.1 -50.9 -51.1 -51.1 -51.2 -51.5 -51.9 -52.6 -53.0 -53.4 -53.5 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 8 6 5 4 6 7 8 7 9 8 8 7 6 700-500 MB RH 74 73 72 71 70 69 66 62 52 46 40 38 34 37 39 39 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 20 23 22 21 17 11 5 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 57 49 34 20 -12 -52 -39 -26 -14 -15 -10 -15 -10 -16 -16 -10 200 MB DIV 109 92 47 53 69 58 36 44 18 -6 -22 -15 -8 -17 1 5 -4 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 0 1 -2 0 1 0 -2 0 0 0 0 0 -2 LAND (KM) 409 365 321 284 247 170 79 10 31 139 198 250 258 240 265 270 215 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 14.1 14.6 15.0 15.4 16.5 17.8 19.1 20.4 20.7 20.4 20.4 21.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 101.6 101.9 102.1 102.1 102.2 102.8 103.9 104.7 106.0 107.0 107.6 108.1 108.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 4 5 7 8 8 7 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 3 10 20 29 37 30 29 1 41 34 34 32 16 12 12 11 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -11. -12. -12. -13. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. -0. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. 1. 0. -1. -5. -14. -25. -28. -28. -26. -24. -22. -20. -18. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 5. 9. 10. 9. 1. -12. -23. -29. -31. -31. -31. -32. -33. -35. -35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 13.5 101.6 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212026 TRUDY 10/15/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.38 3.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.69 5.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 187.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.69 -4.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.53 3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 4.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 3.4 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 22.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.20 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -60.6 -15.6 to -90.4 0.60 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 20.2% 28.4% 21.1% 17.6% 14.5% 20.3% 14.0% 8.9% Logistic: 16.5% 39.6% 20.2% 14.9% 5.8% 8.0% 1.6% 0.2% Bayesian: 8.9% 42.8% 32.2% 17.9% 5.2% 13.1% 1.8% 0.0% Consensus: 15.2% 36.9% 24.5% 16.8% 8.5% 13.8% 5.8% 3.0% DTOPS: 12.0% 51.0% 39.0% 36.0% 24.0% 38.0% 2.0% 0.0% SDCON: 13.6% 43.9% 31.7% 26.4% 16.2% 25.9% 3.9% 1.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212026 TRUDY 10/15/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##