* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TRUDY EP212026 10/16/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 88 93 94 96 91 80 68 60 55 53 51 50 47 44 40 37 V (KT) LAND 85 88 93 94 96 91 80 68 60 55 53 51 50 47 44 40 37 V (KT) LGEM 85 88 90 91 91 85 72 60 54 52 52 51 49 47 44 40 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 2 4 7 6 9 9 9 10 17 20 25 28 36 35 39 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 -2 1 7 7 1 0 6 1 -1 -3 -2 3 3 -1 SHEAR DIR 108 170 181 157 147 178 191 216 204 228 235 258 244 246 238 237 226 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.3 29.8 29.9 29.7 29.7 30.2 30.2 30.0 29.8 29.5 29.1 28.7 29.1 29.5 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 156 161 163 161 161 166 165 162 160 156 152 148 153 156 158 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.4 -51.5 -51.1 -50.8 -51.1 -50.6 -51.2 -51.1 -51.5 -51.8 -52.5 -52.8 -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 8 8 5 5 4 8 6 9 7 9 7 8 5 6 700-500 MB RH 72 72 71 69 67 67 61 53 47 41 36 35 37 37 35 36 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 19 22 21 22 18 12 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 48 40 25 18 -6 -42 -63 -54 -26 -11 -9 -9 -21 -19 -15 -12 4 200 MB DIV 72 55 54 71 63 19 41 10 -2 -18 -24 0 -8 -9 16 -2 -8 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 -3 0 -2 0 -1 0 -2 0 -9 LAND (KM) 363 327 291 256 226 135 79 33 63 147 221 273 283 263 248 220 183 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.5 14.9 15.4 15.9 17.1 18.3 19.6 20.3 20.6 20.7 20.7 20.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 101.9 102.0 102.1 102.4 102.6 103.5 104.5 105.5 106.3 107.1 107.8 108.3 108.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 5 6 6 7 8 7 4 4 3 2 2 3 3 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 10 19 26 36 36 27 34 18 39 34 35 28 16 12 13 11 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 6 CX,CY: -1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -5. -8. -12. -14. -16. -17. -17. -17. -18. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. -0. -3. -5. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. 1. 0. 1. -2. -8. -19. -25. -27. -26. -24. -22. -20. -18. -17. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 9. 11. 6. -5. -17. -25. -30. -32. -34. -35. -38. -41. -45. -48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 14.1 101.9 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212026 TRUDY 10/16/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.5 30.0 to 148.5 0.35 3.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.72 5.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 222.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.65 -4.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.47 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 3.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.84 4.2 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 29.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.27 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -67.9 -15.6 to -90.4 0.70 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 2.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.6% 32.1% 21.1% 17.1% 14.4% 18.7% 12.7% 0.0% Logistic: 23.6% 47.6% 25.4% 22.0% 8.3% 9.2% 0.7% 0.1% Bayesian: 3.7% 28.4% 18.2% 9.0% 0.9% 7.4% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 14.0% 36.1% 21.6% 16.1% 7.9% 11.8% 4.6% 0.0% DTOPS: 35.0% 63.0% 51.0% 39.0% 23.0% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 24.5% 49.5% 36.3% 27.5% 15.4% 10.4% 2.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212026 TRUDY 10/16/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##