* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TRUDY EP212026 10/16/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 112 114 114 108 95 76 63 57 54 53 50 49 46 45 43 42 V (KT) LAND 105 112 114 114 108 95 76 63 57 54 53 50 49 46 45 43 42 V (KT) LGEM 105 112 114 112 107 90 72 61 58 56 55 52 51 48 46 43 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 1 3 6 12 9 6 13 17 13 20 23 27 28 29 29 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 3 3 10 5 -1 1 3 0 -2 3 3 9 2 -2 SHEAR DIR 106 129 135 166 187 191 202 241 251 248 243 250 247 242 242 245 236 SST (C) 28.6 28.8 29.2 29.7 29.8 29.2 29.6 30.0 29.9 29.7 29.5 28.9 29.1 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 148 150 155 160 162 156 160 163 161 159 156 151 152 156 156 155 157 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.2 -51.2 -50.9 -51.2 -51.1 -51.3 -51.1 -51.3 -51.8 -52.0 -52.4 -53.2 -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 8 7 6 5 6 6 8 8 9 8 8 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 71 69 67 64 65 59 53 47 44 37 33 31 33 33 32 34 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 22 22 20 15 5 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 26 17 -2 -29 -67 -43 -37 -27 -18 -13 -21 -16 -29 -27 -25 -9 200 MB DIV 63 65 64 48 20 32 25 -12 -17 -16 -11 -3 -35 1 0 -5 -1 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 2 -1 0 0 0 -2 1 -2 0 1 3 2 0 LAND (KM) 396 365 338 303 259 177 124 104 135 198 261 299 225 204 207 215 202 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.4 14.8 15.4 15.9 17.2 18.4 19.7 20.4 20.5 20.3 20.5 21.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 102.4 102.6 102.8 103.2 103.5 104.6 105.6 106.4 107.0 107.6 108.2 108.8 109.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 6 6 7 8 8 6 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 7 12 20 26 30 24 27 35 34 34 30 15 15 17 13 11 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. 1. 0. -3. -9. -15. -21. -27. -31. -34. -35. -36. -36. -38. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 6. 8. 8. 7. 4. 1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. -1. -5. -16. -25. -28. -28. -27. -25. -23. -21. -19. -17. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 9. 9. 3. -10. -29. -42. -48. -51. -52. -55. -56. -59. -60. -62. -63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 14.0 102.4 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212026 TRUDY 10/16/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.17 1.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.71 5.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.7 34.9 to 7.7 0.63 4.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 378.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.48 -3.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.42 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 3.4 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 21.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.19 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.3 60.4 to 0.0 0.96 1.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -63.4 -15.6 to -90.4 0.64 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 26.8% 21.1% 18.5% 15.9% 12.7% 14.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 30.0% 24.6% 17.0% 15.8% 3.9% 2.1% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 11.8% 13.2% 5.5% 2.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 22.9% 19.7% 13.7% 11.4% 5.7% 5.7% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 37.0% 25.0% 11.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 29.9% 22.3% 12.3% 7.2% 3.3% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212026 TRUDY 10/16/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##