* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TRUDY EP212026 10/16/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 107 106 103 96 85 67 54 46 45 43 42 43 43 42 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 105 107 106 103 96 85 67 54 46 45 43 42 43 43 42 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 105 107 106 102 96 78 61 51 47 46 45 43 43 43 42 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 9 11 15 14 10 12 15 21 21 25 22 26 32 30 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 3 7 9 6 0 6 3 0 1 3 9 7 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 202 191 184 186 198 203 210 217 244 247 260 244 243 253 255 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 29.1 29.7 29.8 29.5 29.5 29.9 30.2 30.1 30.0 29.8 29.5 30.3 30.5 30.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 154 160 162 159 160 163 165 163 161 159 157 165 166 164 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.1 -51.2 -51.2 -51.3 -50.6 -51.3 -51.3 -51.6 -52.0 -52.4 -52.9 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 6 6 3 7 5 9 6 9 6 9 6 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 69 67 67 65 60 55 50 45 40 37 36 36 35 39 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 23 22 23 20 17 8 3 2 3 3 2 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 16 -6 -38 -60 -65 -35 -17 -16 -4 0 -12 -23 -16 -17 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 44 51 19 16 9 31 23 6 -20 -26 -17 -19 -20 44 12 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 1 1 4 4 -1 -1 -2 0 -1 0 -1 1 0 4 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 355 324 299 248 198 108 61 94 187 236 234 187 126 107 104 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.9 15.3 16.0 16.6 18.2 19.7 20.8 21.2 21.4 21.5 21.7 22.0 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 102.4 102.7 102.9 103.3 103.8 104.9 105.9 106.5 107.3 107.8 108.1 108.6 109.3 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 8 8 10 8 5 4 2 1 4 3 2 1 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 22 28 29 27 32 35 33 37 36 30 17 33 37 31 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -9. -16. -22. -28. -32. -35. -35. -36. -35. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -16. -26. -31. -30. -29. -28. -26. -24. -21. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 1. -2. -9. -20. -38. -51. -59. -60. -62. -63. -62. -62. -63. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 14.4 102.4 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212026 TRUDY 10/16/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.19 1.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 3.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.46 3.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 355.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.50 -2.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.30 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 3.2 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 27.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.25 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.5 60.4 to 0.0 0.94 1.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -56.8 -15.6 to -90.4 0.55 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.4% 16.9% 14.0% 11.9% 9.5% 10.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.3% 6.6% 2.2% 1.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.9% 5.4% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.8% 9.7% 5.6% 4.6% 3.4% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 4.9% 5.3% 3.3% 2.3% 1.7% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212026 TRUDY 10/16/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##