* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TRUDY EP212026 10/16/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 67 63 59 56 50 42 38 38 37 35 37 39 40 40 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 67 63 59 56 50 42 38 38 37 35 37 39 40 40 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 65 59 54 49 40 32 29 28 28 27 27 27 26 25 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 9 12 12 8 11 14 21 18 22 23 26 35 36 38 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 5 10 11 8 2 0 4 1 0 3 1 4 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 183 169 191 196 204 201 214 234 256 255 268 244 243 243 243 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 29.5 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.6 29.9 30.2 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.7 30.5 30.6 30.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 159 162 160 159 160 163 164 162 160 160 159 167 168 164 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.1 -51.0 -51.0 -50.8 -50.9 -51.1 -51.2 -51.7 -51.8 -52.3 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 5 6 4 5 6 7 7 9 8 8 7 6 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 67 66 66 64 60 52 50 43 37 38 37 37 36 30 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 21 21 19 18 12 5 3 3 3 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -9 -36 -57 -87 -58 -37 -21 -11 2 -8 -1 -19 -1 4 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 52 31 11 -26 -9 17 24 -10 -27 -19 5 -7 28 23 -11 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 1 3 4 -1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 -3 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 335 306 268 208 148 74 45 94 193 246 232 174 112 70 90 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.6 15.2 15.7 16.5 17.2 18.7 20.1 20.8 21.1 21.4 21.6 21.9 22.1 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 102.4 102.8 103.2 103.6 104.1 105.2 106.0 106.5 107.4 107.9 108.0 108.5 109.4 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 8 9 9 8 6 4 4 2 2 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 28 28 28 25 35 25 33 37 35 31 20 38 36 29 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -12. -11. -11. -9. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -6. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -7. -11. -12. -11. -9. -6. -3. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -3. -4. -9. -18. -26. -29. -29. -30. -28. -25. -23. -21. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -12. -16. -19. -25. -33. -37. -37. -38. -40. -38. -36. -35. -35. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 14.6 102.4 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212026 TRUDY 10/16/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.45 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -30.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.00 0.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.36 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 257.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.62 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.22 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 28.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.26 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.8 60.4 to 0.0 0.85 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -52.0 -15.6 to -90.4 0.49 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 5.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.5% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212026 TRUDY 10/16/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##