* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TRUDY EP212026 10/17/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 71 68 64 61 53 50 46 46 44 44 44 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 71 68 64 61 53 50 46 46 44 44 44 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 70 64 59 53 42 36 33 31 30 28 28 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 13 13 13 11 14 16 18 18 22 20 28 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 12 9 8 5 -2 5 1 2 2 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 188 202 205 205 206 212 223 245 241 251 248 246 246 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.5 29.9 29.9 30.2 30.2 30.1 29.8 30.1 30.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 162 161 160 160 163 162 164 163 163 160 163 168 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.2 -51.2 -50.9 -50.7 -51.3 -51.2 -51.7 -51.9 -52.2 -52.9 -53.5 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 5 5 5 3 7 5 9 6 9 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 68 69 65 64 59 54 48 45 41 39 40 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 18 16 14 8 6 4 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -38 -66 -91 -91 -55 -33 -20 -3 1 -5 -10 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 16 15 -8 14 32 20 -2 -19 -27 -23 -14 17 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 3 5 2 3 1 0 0 0 2 -1 4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 292 264 220 158 115 41 38 113 164 216 201 138 92 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.7 16.2 17.0 17.8 19.2 20.2 20.8 21.1 21.4 21.8 22.1 22.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 102.5 102.9 103.3 103.8 104.4 105.3 106.0 106.7 107.1 107.6 108.2 108.8 109.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 10 9 7 5 3 2 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 28 32 30 27 29 44 25 33 35 40 22 31 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 0. -3. -6. -9. -11. -12. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -9. -13. -19. -22. -24. -24. -23. -21. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -11. -14. -22. -25. -29. -29. -31. -31. -31. -29. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 15.1 102.5 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212026 TRUDY 10/17/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.8 30.0 to 148.5 0.46 3.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 0.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.7 34.9 to 7.7 0.23 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 234.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.64 -3.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.23 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 3.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 2.9 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 32.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.30 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.1 60.4 to 0.0 0.87 0.8 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -62.4 -15.6 to -90.4 0.63 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.6% 15.4% 10.9% 8.9% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 3.4% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 6.4% 3.9% 3.1% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 10.0% 9.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 6.4% 7.7% 2.4% 2.0% 2.2% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212026 TRUDY 10/17/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##