* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TRUDY EP212026 10/17/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 80 78 74 69 62 54 49 47 43 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 80 78 74 69 62 54 49 47 43 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 79 75 69 63 52 46 43 41 39 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 16 12 12 11 14 18 17 19 19 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 9 10 9 5 2 2 3 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 201 212 226 220 215 225 229 246 252 251 235 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.8 29.6 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.8 30.0 29.8 29.6 29.3 29.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 162 160 157 158 159 161 163 160 158 154 154 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.0 -50.9 -50.8 -51.2 -51.3 -51.4 -51.9 -52.1 -52.4 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 5 5 4 6 6 8 7 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 67 65 62 60 54 49 43 39 37 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 16 13 11 8 5 3 3 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -38 -70 -104 -91 -62 -39 -20 -16 -4 -12 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 12 7 27 25 21 21 -2 -27 -14 3 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 6 2 3 1 2 1 0 1 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 268 220 172 145 103 76 115 192 261 214 187 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.4 17.0 17.7 18.4 19.6 20.4 20.8 21.1 21.3 21.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 103.2 103.7 104.2 104.7 105.2 106.0 106.8 107.5 108.3 108.9 109.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 6 5 4 3 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 28 28 22 32 32 34 32 36 27 14 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. -2. -6. -10. -14. -16. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -4. -6. -8. -13. -19. -22. -24. -23. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -2. -6. -11. -18. -26. -31. -33. -37. -37. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 15.7 103.2 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212026 TRUDY 10/17/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.3 30.0 to 148.5 0.42 3.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.8 34.9 to 7.7 0.19 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 307.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.56 -3.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.25 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 3.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 3.5 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 32.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.30 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 20.2 60.4 to 0.0 0.66 0.7 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -74.4 -15.6 to -90.4 0.79 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.3% 18.7% 14.2% 11.6% 9.0% 12.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.8% 15.9% 6.2% 3.1% 0.5% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.8% 7.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.0% 13.9% 6.9% 4.9% 3.2% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 22.0% 5.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 14.5% 9.4% 3.9% 2.4% 1.6% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212026 TRUDY 10/17/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##