* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TRUDY EP212026 10/17/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 80 78 76 71 65 57 54 51 49 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 80 78 76 71 65 57 54 51 49 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 79 75 69 63 54 49 46 44 42 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 12 14 11 11 13 18 17 21 22 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 12 6 6 7 5 6 2 1 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 223 227 236 230 240 218 242 241 242 240 241 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.9 29.3 29.4 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.8 29.6 28.9 29.0 28.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 164 158 159 161 161 162 160 158 151 151 149 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.7 -50.5 -51.1 -51.2 -51.0 -51.5 -51.8 -51.9 -52.5 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 3 8 6 10 7 9 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 64 61 60 57 52 48 45 40 39 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 15 13 10 8 7 6 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -72 -105 -76 -55 -45 -23 -14 -16 -9 -3 -21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 4 10 18 14 7 3 -10 -14 -8 2 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 2 3 3 2 0 2 0 0 -3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 225 173 147 105 93 96 180 221 239 203 222 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.3 17.1 17.9 18.6 19.2 20.2 20.7 20.7 21.1 21.2 21.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 103.7 104.4 105.1 105.5 105.9 106.6 107.4 107.8 108.8 109.4 109.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 8 6 5 3 3 4 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 31 21 32 38 45 28 34 34 12 13 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. -3. -8. -11. -15. -18. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -5. -6. -10. -13. -16. -17. -19. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -2. -4. -9. -15. -23. -26. -29. -31. -36. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 16.3 103.7 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212026 TRUDY 10/17/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.43 3.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.7 34.9 to 7.7 0.15 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 308.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.56 -3.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.21 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 3.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.86 3.6 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 37.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.34 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 27.2 60.4 to 0.0 0.55 0.6 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -74.2 -15.6 to -90.4 0.78 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.0% 18.6% 13.9% 11.0% 8.5% 10.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.7% 10.6% 4.8% 1.8% 0.3% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 2.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.1% 10.6% 6.3% 4.3% 2.9% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 17.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 11.5% 7.3% 3.6% 2.6% 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212026 TRUDY 10/17/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##