* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TRUDY EP212026 10/18/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 84 81 77 73 65 59 55 51 48 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 84 81 77 73 65 59 55 51 48 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 84 80 75 71 63 59 56 54 52 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 13 13 14 15 18 15 19 23 30 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 6 7 5 5 3 3 1 0 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 253 245 244 229 216 252 242 241 208 227 222 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.8 29.9 29.7 29.9 29.8 29.5 29.1 29.3 30.0 30.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 160 162 163 160 162 160 157 152 154 162 166 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.7 -51.2 -51.1 -50.9 -51.3 -51.7 -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 6 8 5 10 6 9 5 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 60 60 54 53 50 44 43 43 43 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 14 13 11 10 8 7 6 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -70 -55 -30 -24 -15 -7 -13 -7 -2 -9 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 19 11 13 6 9 -11 -23 -8 15 9 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 3 3 1 0 0 2 -2 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 162 130 127 123 136 205 258 223 171 117 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.6 19.2 19.8 20.3 20.9 21.0 21.3 21.6 21.9 22.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 105.4 105.9 106.3 106.7 107.0 107.6 108.1 108.7 109.2 109.8 110.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 6 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 29 41 38 25 32 35 32 13 18 23 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 11 CX,CY: -6/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. -1. -7. -13. -18. -22. -24. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -10. -14. -17. -18. -19. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -8. -12. -20. -26. -30. -34. -37. -39. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 17.9 105.4 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212026 TRUDY 10/18/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.39 3.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.6 34.9 to 7.7 0.20 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 383.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.47 -2.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.22 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 3.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 3.2 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 37.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.34 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 36.6 60.4 to 0.0 0.39 0.4 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -66.7 -15.6 to -90.4 0.68 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.7% 17.4% 13.4% 10.5% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.8% 4.3% 2.6% 1.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.2% 7.6% 5.4% 3.9% 2.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 3.1% 3.8% 2.7% 1.9% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212026 TRUDY 10/18/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##