* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942026 10/19/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 23 24 27 34 43 55 63 68 70 72 71 69 65 65 66 V (KT) LAND 20 22 23 24 27 34 43 55 63 68 70 72 71 69 65 65 66 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 21 22 23 25 27 31 35 41 48 56 61 62 60 58 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 1 2 4 2 4 2 11 16 3 6 6 5 8 8 8 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -2 -4 -2 -4 -2 -7 -6 0 0 0 3 2 -1 2 5 SHEAR DIR 10 46 256 271 315 201 207 94 59 37 314 285 247 206 240 221 225 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.6 29.2 29.3 29.9 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 161 156 158 164 158 156 154 156 156 156 155 154 154 155 154 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.5 -51.8 -52.1 -51.8 -51.9 -51.4 -51.6 -51.2 -51.4 -50.9 -51.1 -50.8 -51.2 -50.5 -50.5 -50.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 7 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 86 88 88 88 87 86 84 82 81 81 77 72 75 75 75 75 75 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 57 51 45 41 39 35 48 48 53 40 46 43 44 44 41 40 30 200 MB DIV 81 77 90 94 93 103 170 203 181 150 195 220 130 107 150 85 95 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 1 0 2 1 0 0 1 0 1 -1 4 14 24 LAND (KM) 414 470 529 599 607 665 751 838 881 863 818 727 619 522 447 359 268 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 10.5 10.4 10.3 10.2 10.0 9.7 9.4 9.2 9.6 10.4 11.7 13.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 93.0 93.9 94.8 95.7 96.6 98.5 100.3 101.6 102.3 102.9 103.7 104.5 105.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 5 3 5 7 8 8 5 5 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 2 0 0 0 6 32 15 8 5 0 0 10 24 21 22 16 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 2. 9. 19. 29. 36. 41. 46. 50. 53. 55. 55. 56. 58. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -1. 1. -0. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 0. -3. -5. -7. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 7. 14. 23. 35. 43. 48. 51. 52. 51. 49. 45. 45. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.6 93.0 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942026 INVEST 10/19/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.91 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.84 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -10.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.92 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.59 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 2.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.02 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -41.0 -15.6 to -90.4 0.34 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.3% 62.3% 36.9% 23.9% 7.7% 52.0% 78.6% 66.7% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 2.3% 2.5% 6.7% Consensus: 2.8% 21.0% 12.4% 8.0% 2.6% 18.1% 27.0% 24.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942026 INVEST 10/19/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##