* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942026 10/20/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 23 24 27 35 44 54 61 65 66 65 63 60 58 58 60 V (KT) LAND 20 22 23 24 27 35 44 54 61 65 66 65 63 60 58 58 60 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 21 22 23 24 27 31 36 42 48 53 54 51 48 46 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 2 3 1 4 4 9 14 12 5 3 12 12 13 6 6 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -3 -2 -4 -2 -2 -5 -6 -3 3 4 1 -1 0 0 7 SHEAR DIR 61 220 248 231 124 151 111 78 57 347 256 251 233 214 199 227 216 SST (C) 29.3 29.5 29.2 29.4 29.7 29.8 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.7 28.9 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 158 160 156 158 161 162 156 153 155 154 155 157 155 153 150 152 157 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.7 -52.1 -51.8 -51.6 -52.0 -51.4 -51.7 -51.0 -51.4 -50.6 -51.0 -50.6 -50.8 -50.0 -51.0 -50.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 87 87 87 86 86 86 84 83 82 80 74 75 76 72 70 65 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 47 42 41 42 48 51 58 57 46 54 48 67 63 58 48 61 200 MB DIV 71 96 90 99 97 123 191 187 176 203 142 133 111 97 70 63 87 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 -1 -1 0 2 5 5 5 9 8 LAND (KM) 480 549 609 619 642 731 794 821 783 726 633 536 457 403 337 273 208 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.4 10.2 10.1 10.0 9.6 9.4 9.5 10.0 10.9 12.4 13.9 15.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 94.1 95.1 96.0 96.9 97.7 99.4 100.6 101.4 101.9 102.8 104.0 105.3 106.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 8 8 7 5 3 5 8 10 9 6 5 6 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 12 25 27 12 11 1 0 10 24 27 23 16 15 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 482 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 2. 9. 19. 28. 35. 40. 45. 49. 51. 53. 53. 54. 56. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 2. 3. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 3. 0. -3. -5. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 7. 15. 24. 34. 41. 45. 46. 45. 43. 40. 38. 38. 40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.5 94.1 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942026 INVEST 10/20/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.92 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.87 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -8.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.92 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.61 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 8.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.07 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -8.7 -15.6 to -90.4 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.5% 41.4% 18.7% 11.1% 2.5% 33.7% 63.1% 52.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 6.8% Consensus: 1.2% 14.1% 6.3% 3.7% 0.8% 11.2% 21.1% 19.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 5.0% SDCON: 0.6% 8.5% 3.6% 1.8% 0.4% 6.1% 11.0% 12.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942026 INVEST 10/20/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##