* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942026 10/20/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 41 47 62 76 89 100 103 104 100 91 86 81 77 72 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 41 47 62 76 89 100 103 104 100 91 86 81 77 72 V (KT) LGEM 25 28 30 34 38 49 64 81 96 106 109 101 87 76 69 66 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 1 4 7 7 5 11 14 8 8 5 8 9 7 6 10 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 -2 -4 0 -3 -4 -3 0 7 7 5 1 -1 -2 4 SHEAR DIR 111 40 49 81 135 92 92 62 75 296 282 229 209 191 187 192 191 SST (C) 29.8 29.3 29.3 29.5 29.8 29.9 29.5 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.3 29.6 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 162 157 157 158 161 163 158 153 154 155 153 154 154 154 157 160 161 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -52.0 -51.7 -51.5 -52.0 -51.3 -51.6 -51.1 -51.4 -50.9 -51.1 -50.8 -51.1 -50.7 -51.0 -51.1 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 6 6 5 6 5 700-500 MB RH 88 88 86 87 87 86 84 81 82 78 76 75 75 74 71 62 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 11 13 14 15 20 23 29 33 36 39 41 38 37 34 28 24 850 MB ENV VOR 49 46 40 35 36 49 46 50 42 47 39 45 27 24 21 28 61 200 MB DIV 98 86 97 96 96 148 169 155 184 191 158 146 133 85 38 75 83 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 1 2 2 0 -1 4 LAND (KM) 566 635 651 653 662 710 722 737 713 659 607 541 444 306 206 94 36 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.7 9.9 10.2 10.7 11.7 12.8 13.7 14.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 94.8 95.6 96.4 97.0 97.6 99.0 100.1 101.1 102.0 103.1 104.2 104.9 104.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 6 6 6 5 5 6 8 7 4 6 7 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 3 10 25 29 16 9 0 3 12 29 25 25 31 41 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 488 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 40.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 9. 18. 26. 33. 38. 41. 44. 47. 48. 49. 50. 52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 9. 7. 4. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 14. 25. 33. 38. 40. 40. 32. 28. 22. 16. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 0. -3. -5. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. -10. -8. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 9. 5. 0. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 16. 23. 37. 51. 64. 75. 78. 79. 75. 66. 61. 56. 52. 47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.0 94.8 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942026 INVEST 10/20/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.88 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 34.9 to 7.7 0.80 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -12.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.92 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 94.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.63 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 8.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.07 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -4.6 -15.6 to -90.4 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 3.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 33% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 64% is 10.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 37.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 32.5% 64.3% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 22.7% 7.9% 4.3% 1.0% 16.6% 10.3% 16.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% Consensus: 0.8% 20.3% 2.8% 1.5% 0.3% 16.4% 24.9% 5.4% DTOPS: 1.0% 18.0% 7.0% 1.0% 0.0% 6.0% 10.0% 32.0% SDCON: 0.9% 19.1% 4.9% 1.2% 0.1% 11.2% 17.4% 18.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942026 INVEST 10/20/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##