* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942026 10/20/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 39 45 58 74 87 100 104 104 102 97 93 89 89 86 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 39 45 58 74 87 100 104 104 102 97 93 89 89 86 V (KT) LGEM 25 28 31 34 38 47 59 72 87 100 106 99 85 75 72 70 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 5 8 8 5 7 7 9 3 8 9 13 11 7 9 6 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -1 -2 0 0 -2 -4 -3 6 8 6 0 1 3 9 3 SHEAR DIR 80 63 111 129 159 107 62 51 95 300 253 245 237 159 217 199 201 SST (C) 29.3 28.9 29.0 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.1 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 157 152 153 156 158 160 156 156 156 157 157 155 154 156 157 153 159 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.6 -51.5 -51.9 -51.9 -51.4 -51.7 -51.0 -51.6 -50.7 -50.6 -50.4 -51.4 -51.0 -51.3 -50.7 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 5 6 5 700-500 MB RH 87 85 88 88 87 86 84 81 78 75 76 76 73 74 72 72 74 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 13 14 15 18 21 26 28 32 35 38 40 40 39 38 36 33 850 MB ENV VOR 51 43 37 42 45 46 57 60 53 50 44 53 37 38 8 16 9 200 MB DIV 89 96 93 112 104 152 168 119 139 122 152 107 102 107 39 15 28 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 6 3 2 3 1 1 LAND (KM) 597 631 629 643 655 658 668 686 682 667 631 575 486 383 254 152 74 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.0 10.0 9.9 9.9 10.2 10.6 11.0 11.7 12.6 13.4 14.1 14.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 95.3 96.0 96.6 97.1 97.8 99.1 100.5 102.1 103.6 105.2 106.3 106.5 106.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 5 3 4 5 6 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 3 12 25 26 16 0 4 20 16 16 23 19 25 28 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 504 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 32.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 18. 26. 32. 37. 41. 43. 45. 47. 48. 48. 50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 7. 5. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 5. 7. 14. 21. 28. 33. 35. 36. 32. 28. 24. 21. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 0. -3. -4. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 3. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 20. 33. 49. 62. 75. 79. 79. 77. 72. 68. 64. 64. 61. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.0 95.3 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942026 INVEST 10/20/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.2 30.0 to 148.5 0.85 7.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.73 5.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -12.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.92 -5.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 98.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.65 3.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.43 2.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 9.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.08 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -41.1 -15.6 to -90.4 0.34 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 43% is 7.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 21.6% 17.4% 0.0% 0.0% 22.2% 43.1% 0.0% Logistic: 7.0% 54.4% 27.8% 17.7% 5.7% 36.6% 34.4% 42.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 4.9% 2.6% 0.6% 0.1% 6.7% 14.6% 5.5% Consensus: 2.4% 27.0% 15.9% 6.1% 1.9% 21.8% 30.7% 15.8% DTOPS: 1.0% 15.0% 6.0% 1.0% 0.0% 4.0% 6.0% 17.0% SDCON: 1.7% 21.0% 10.9% 3.5% 0.9% 12.9% 18.3% 16.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942026 INVEST 10/20/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##