* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942026 10/20/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 40 47 63 80 90 98 104 104 99 95 91 86 85 83 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 40 47 63 80 90 98 104 104 99 95 91 86 85 83 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 28 31 34 44 56 70 85 97 97 87 81 76 72 70 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 8 8 3 4 7 7 6 4 7 13 12 8 6 9 5 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -2 0 1 -2 -2 -3 3 6 5 1 0 1 7 12 3 SHEAR DIR 56 86 126 142 134 78 31 34 318 272 259 248 170 231 243 197 206 SST (C) 28.9 29.1 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 152 154 157 159 159 156 157 156 155 155 154 154 155 156 156 155 161 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.4 -51.9 -52.0 -51.4 -51.6 -51.1 -51.4 -50.9 -50.9 -50.5 -51.1 -51.1 -51.2 -50.8 -51.2 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 6 5 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 85 86 87 86 85 85 82 79 78 76 76 74 74 74 71 74 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 14 17 18 22 27 28 31 36 39 39 39 38 36 36 33 850 MB ENV VOR 41 29 32 36 41 41 49 40 44 33 41 33 27 13 -3 9 0 200 MB DIV 86 87 92 102 97 149 157 142 184 131 127 153 129 68 36 21 38 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 1 5 3 1 3 4 2 3 LAND (KM) 652 652 658 668 675 665 684 678 657 620 540 483 409 305 215 133 31 LAT (DEG N) 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.9 10.3 10.7 11.2 12.0 12.9 13.9 14.5 15.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 96.2 96.8 97.4 97.9 98.5 99.7 101.1 102.4 103.7 104.8 105.4 105.5 105.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 5 6 7 7 7 7 7 4 3 4 5 5 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 5 17 26 28 23 7 0 9 20 24 20 24 26 26 30 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 500 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 42.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 9. 18. 26. 32. 36. 39. 42. 44. 45. 46. 47. 49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 6. 4. 2. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 14. 19. 25. 32. 35. 33. 29. 26. 22. 20. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 0. -3. -4. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 10. 5. 0. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 15. 22. 38. 55. 65. 73. 79. 79. 74. 70. 66. 61. 60. 58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.8 96.2 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942026 INVEST 10/20/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.2 30.0 to 148.5 0.85 7.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.72 5.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -6.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.91 -5.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 92.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.62 3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 2.9 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 17.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.16 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -53.2 -15.6 to -90.4 0.50 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 53% is 9.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 23.5% 18.2% 0.0% 0.0% 22.7% 53.2% 0.0% Logistic: 6.7% 59.2% 28.1% 18.2% 5.7% 32.4% 58.6% 55.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 8.1% 5.4% 1.6% 0.1% 12.8% 12.7% 5.9% Consensus: 2.3% 30.3% 17.3% 6.6% 1.9% 22.6% 41.5% 20.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 14.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.0% 11.0% 41.0% SDCON: 1.6% 22.1% 11.1% 3.3% 0.9% 13.8% 26.2% 30.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942026 INVEST 10/20/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##