* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942026 10/21/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 36 44 53 73 87 94 97 98 95 88 86 83 80 75 74 V (KT) LAND 25 29 36 44 53 73 87 94 97 98 95 88 86 83 80 75 74 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 32 36 49 65 82 93 94 86 76 71 69 69 66 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 2 1 3 7 6 5 6 8 12 9 7 7 8 10 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -1 0 -1 -2 0 2 6 6 5 2 5 4 7 8 10 SHEAR DIR 85 123 143 82 100 73 32 309 250 225 228 238 174 237 271 246 230 SST (C) 29.1 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.3 29.2 29.4 28.9 28.5 27.9 27.8 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 154 157 159 159 160 155 154 157 152 146 140 141 155 153 153 157 155 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.8 -51.9 -51.5 -51.3 -51.6 -51.1 -51.6 -50.6 -51.3 -50.6 -51.4 -50.9 -51.3 -50.8 -51.3 -50.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 6 5 6 5 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 85 86 85 84 85 85 82 78 77 77 77 77 76 79 79 79 76 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 16 18 19 25 27 30 33 37 40 38 40 40 41 38 36 850 MB ENV VOR 30 30 33 38 34 46 36 28 26 24 37 30 28 8 6 3 -12 200 MB DIV 83 100 105 86 118 151 153 181 183 129 161 142 115 121 75 42 58 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 5 4 3 4 7 8 5 LAND (KM) 663 666 676 695 710 683 673 653 592 535 480 415 312 268 274 234 177 LAT (DEG N) 9.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 96.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 4 5 4 5 6 6 3 3 6 6 1 1 6 8 HEAT CONTENT 5 20 27 28 28 21 15 2 0 1 2 6 26 25 25 26 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 516 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 62.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 17. 24. 30. 34. 37. 39. 42. 42. 42. 43. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 7. 7. 4. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 5. 9. 14. 21. 27. 33. 35. 31. 30. 27. 26. 21. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 3. 0. -3. -5. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 8. 12. 18. 16. 8. 0. -4. -8. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 11. 19. 28. 48. 62. 69. 72. 73. 70. 63. 61. 58. 55. 50. 49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.7 96.9 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942026 INVEST 10/21/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.8 30.0 to 148.5 0.87 7.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.79 6.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -2.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.91 -6.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 98.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.65 3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 2.8 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 24.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.22 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -44.0 -15.6 to -90.4 0.38 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 59% is 10.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 26.9% 19.7% 0.0% 0.0% 25.7% 58.9% 0.0% Logistic: 7.2% 64.9% 34.3% 24.8% 7.8% 40.5% 58.4% 46.1% Bayesian: 0.3% 9.1% 8.1% 2.7% 0.2% 11.4% 7.1% 28.0% Consensus: 2.5% 33.6% 20.7% 9.2% 2.7% 25.9% 41.5% 24.7% DTOPS: 2.0% 14.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.0% 16.0% 52.0% SDCON: 2.2% 23.8% 12.3% 4.6% 1.3% 15.9% 28.7% 38.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942026 INVEST 10/21/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##