* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942026 10/21/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 36 43 51 60 77 86 91 93 90 81 78 76 75 72 70 68 V (KT) LAND 30 36 43 51 60 77 86 91 93 90 81 78 76 75 72 70 68 V (KT) LGEM 30 34 38 43 48 62 76 85 87 82 75 67 65 63 61 59 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 4 2 3 6 4 3 10 8 10 14 12 8 10 7 11 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -2 -1 -4 -1 1 3 6 4 8 3 3 4 12 5 0 SHEAR DIR 117 150 146 144 169 202 272 252 217 212 216 236 238 248 256 234 229 SST (C) 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.4 29.1 29.3 29.1 28.6 27.9 27.6 28.7 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 157 159 159 159 157 153 155 153 148 141 138 149 156 156 157 157 158 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.9 -51.5 -51.3 -51.6 -51.2 -51.3 -51.0 -50.9 -50.5 -51.2 -51.1 -51.2 -51.1 -51.2 -51.4 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 6 6 6 7 6 7 6 700-500 MB RH 85 85 84 85 84 83 77 75 71 70 70 70 70 71 76 76 79 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 14 16 17 19 24 27 31 34 35 34 35 37 39 39 37 35 850 MB ENV VOR 27 31 36 35 37 48 39 30 23 33 29 29 19 4 8 -4 -1 200 MB DIV 96 96 91 95 115 150 153 180 141 135 127 110 52 67 51 66 52 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 -1 -1 1 2 0 1 1 2 3 4 4 LAND (KM) 627 645 668 663 659 634 625 600 551 470 381 310 250 202 167 118 62 LAT (DEG N) 10.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 97.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 4 2 2 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 22 25 28 26 25 15 1 0 0 2 9 19 25 27 28 36 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 499 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 65.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 16. 22. 27. 30. 33. 34. 36. 37. 37. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 14. 24. 30. 32. 28. 28. 28. 27. 24. 21. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 3. 0. -2. -4. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 13. 20. 18. 9. 1. -5. -8. -11. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 14. 21. 30. 47. 56. 61. 63. 60. 51. 48. 46. 45. 42. 40. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.1 97.5 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942026 INVEST 10/21/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.83 12.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 5.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 34.9 to 7.7 0.84 10.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 0.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.91 -9.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 98.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.65 6.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 5.7 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 28.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.26 2.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 2.1 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -62.6 -15.6 to -90.4 0.63 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 52% is 4.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 46% is 6.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 71% is 12.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 49% is 10.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.0% 52.2% 36.0% 22.5% 0.0% 46.0% 70.5% 49.3% Logistic: 22.9% 77.4% 53.0% 41.2% 24.1% 55.9% 66.7% 40.5% Bayesian: 10.9% 51.3% 51.5% 26.6% 1.6% 50.6% 26.1% 4.7% Consensus: 15.6% 60.3% 46.9% 30.1% 8.6% 50.8% 54.4% 31.5% DTOPS: 6.0% 29.0% 11.0% 3.0% 2.0% 18.0% 53.0% 74.0% SDCON: 10.8% 44.6% 28.9% 16.5% 5.3% 34.4% 53.7% 52.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942026 INVEST 10/21/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##