* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982026 09/17/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 24 29 38 50 57 62 64 67 70 73 76 78 79 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 23 24 29 38 50 57 62 64 67 70 73 76 78 79 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 21 22 23 25 28 31 35 40 46 52 57 61 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 13 16 17 19 19 6 12 13 18 9 15 12 10 9 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 4 3 2 -2 0 4 2 0 -5 -1 0 4 1 5 2 SHEAR DIR 341 338 343 347 2 8 26 7 360 1 350 337 349 18 32 22 38 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.6 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.6 29.7 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 163 162 161 161 160 159 160 159 158 159 161 159 159 161 160 162 160 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.3 -51.7 -52.0 -52.0 -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 -52.4 -52.0 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -52.1 -52.0 -51.9 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 75 75 76 77 77 81 80 80 76 73 67 65 64 61 61 62 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 12 11 12 12 12 13 15 16 17 17 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -21 -16 -12 -9 0 -1 15 26 32 19 7 4 8 19 11 2 200 MB DIV 41 52 66 23 16 16 21 101 87 90 89 94 87 75 77 64 48 700-850 TADV 0 1 2 1 0 -3 0 -2 -4 -7 -4 -3 -1 1 3 4 3 LAND (KM) 1396 1440 1500 1570 1632 1790 1975 2131 2206 2202 2173 2151 2151 2127 2078 1989 1871 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.8 11.9 11.9 11.9 11.3 10.4 9.7 9.8 10.6 11.7 12.3 12.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 115.5 117.0 118.2 119.3 120.2 121.7 123.2 124.5 125.7 126.6 127.4 127.7 127.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 11 10 8 9 8 6 6 6 6 1 2 5 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 25 20 28 19 20 28 28 27 22 16 15 16 16 16 19 28 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 635 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 8. 18. 28. 35. 41. 45. 48. 51. 54. 56. 59. 62. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -10. -8. -7. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 10. 18. 30. 37. 42. 44. 47. 50. 53. 56. 58. 59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.5 115.5 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982026 INVEST 09/17/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 141.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.94 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.4 34.9 to 7.7 0.31 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 51.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.36 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 25.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.23 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -39.4 -15.6 to -90.4 0.32 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 15.6% 3.4% 1.8% 0.4% 4.0% 12.0% 31.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 3.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.9% Consensus: 0.7% 6.3% 1.2% 0.6% 0.1% 1.5% 4.1% 10.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982026 INVEST 09/17/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##