* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982026 09/18/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 19 19 20 26 36 47 57 63 67 70 74 78 81 83 84 V (KT) LAND 20 20 19 19 20 26 36 47 57 63 67 70 74 78 81 83 84 V (KT) LGEM 20 19 18 17 17 17 19 21 24 28 33 39 45 52 58 62 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 14 16 18 17 21 10 7 9 15 12 12 5 7 5 6 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 4 1 0 -1 4 4 2 -4 -1 -3 1 1 3 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 333 339 347 358 360 17 33 27 14 341 324 334 316 315 323 351 173 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.7 29.7 29.0 28.5 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 162 160 160 159 160 159 158 162 162 160 159 161 154 149 149 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.6 -52.0 -52.0 -51.6 -52.2 -51.6 -52.1 -51.4 -52.0 -51.5 -52.0 -51.4 -51.8 -51.2 -51.3 -50.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 5 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 75 75 76 74 77 78 77 77 71 68 64 62 63 61 62 58 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 9 8 10 12 13 13 15 16 17 19 21 23 24 25 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -15 -14 -11 -6 8 12 22 30 23 7 4 7 13 14 16 19 200 MB DIV 42 52 40 26 24 20 92 93 110 93 92 67 94 75 36 10 1 700-850 TADV 1 1 1 0 -1 -1 0 -3 -4 -4 -3 0 3 5 7 3 -2 LAND (KM) 1424 1472 1537 1595 1658 1815 1952 2043 2057 2041 2003 1963 1904 1807 1645 1455 1277 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.7 11.7 11.7 11.6 11.0 10.5 10.5 11.2 12.2 13.3 14.0 14.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 116.1 117.4 118.5 119.4 120.2 121.7 123.0 124.2 125.3 126.2 126.8 127.0 126.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 10 8 8 8 6 6 7 7 5 3 4 7 9 9 7 HEAT CONTENT 23 25 23 19 19 30 29 26 21 15 17 19 17 23 20 12 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 1. 8. 18. 27. 34. 39. 43. 46. 49. 52. 54. 56. 58. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -6. -4. -3. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. 12. 14. 14. 14. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -0. 0. 6. 16. 27. 37. 43. 47. 50. 54. 58. 61. 63. 64. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.5 116.1 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982026 INVEST 09/18/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 141.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.94 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.6 34.9 to 7.7 0.30 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 53.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.34 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 24.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.22 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -37.5 -15.6 to -90.4 0.29 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 4.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.7% 4.4% 12.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Consensus: 0.2% 1.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 1.5% 4.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% SDCON: 0.1% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.2% 3.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982026 INVEST 09/18/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##