* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982026 09/18/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 21 22 26 36 48 58 63 68 72 79 82 83 85 85 V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 21 22 26 36 48 58 63 68 72 79 82 83 85 85 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 20 22 24 28 33 39 47 57 65 68 73 79 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 18 20 18 20 21 12 14 11 12 10 15 13 11 5 12 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 2 1 0 2 2 0 1 -4 -4 -2 0 3 1 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 335 339 353 356 352 22 40 3 4 351 319 350 353 347 38 93 113 SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.6 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.2 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 161 162 161 162 162 160 159 160 161 158 158 162 161 163 163 158 160 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.9 -51.8 -51.5 -51.7 -52.1 -51.9 -51.9 -51.7 -52.0 -51.8 -51.8 -51.7 -51.4 -51.3 -51.1 -50.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 5 6 7 700-500 MB RH 75 77 75 76 77 80 78 74 73 70 68 66 67 67 68 65 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 9 10 13 15 16 17 19 21 24 26 23 22 21 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -6 -1 0 11 22 43 40 42 28 28 31 34 21 14 35 66 200 MB DIV 37 39 41 35 37 60 90 122 143 124 126 117 102 69 46 22 14 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 0 -2 0 -2 -7 -9 -2 -1 0 2 3 2 -1 1 LAND (KM) 1419 1467 1532 1603 1686 1855 1982 2082 2150 2189 2197 2158 2039 1826 1522 1237 1058 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.4 12.5 12.5 12.3 11.8 11.5 11.6 12.1 12.5 12.4 12.0 11.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 117.3 118.4 119.5 120.5 121.4 123.1 124.6 126.1 127.5 128.4 128.4 127.5 125.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 9 9 8 7 7 6 3 2 8 13 16 17 14 11 HEAT CONTENT 24 28 21 22 23 22 22 16 14 12 12 14 21 28 21 17 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 699 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 1. 7. 17. 26. 33. 37. 40. 44. 49. 54. 57. 60. 64. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. -0. -3. -7. -9. -11. -11. -11. -12. -10. -8. -7. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 16. 17. 18. 14. 11. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 16. 28. 38. 43. 48. 52. 59. 62. 63. 65. 65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.2 117.3 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982026 INVEST 09/18/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 141.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.94 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.4 34.9 to 7.7 0.20 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 52.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.35 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.51 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 26.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.24 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -18.4 -15.6 to -90.4 0.04 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 2.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 2.2% 7.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Consensus: 0.1% 1.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.7% 2.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 9.0% SDCON: 0.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 5.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982026 INVEST 09/18/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##