Real-time Guidance for DISTURBANCE INVEST 98 (WP98)

This page provides plots and information for DISTURBANCE INVEST 98 (WP98). The left side of this page provides TCGP-generated plots of numerical guidance and other TCGP-curated data. The right side of this page provides external links to additional information and products. Most of the model guidance displayed in the plots come from modeling centers outside of NCAR, such as NOAA, other national numerical weather prediction centers, and universities. Click here for information about who contributes to TCGP. Your use of this page is governed by the UCAR Terms of Service and this site's disclaimer. To obtain help for any item on this page, click on the question mark beside that item.


Information as of the most recent model cycle

At 1800 UTC, 21 December 2024, DISTURBANCE INVEST 98 (WP98) was located in the Northwest Pacific basin at 5.6°N and 114.7°E. The current intensity was 20 kt and the center was moving at 9 kt at a bearing of 55 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb.


Track guidance


Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) track guidance and diagnostics

A plot of late cycle GEFS track by Probability of Rapid Intensification by GELOG has not yet been generated.


Intensity guidance


Probabilistic wind exceedance guidance

A plot of 34-kt wind exceedance guidance has not yet been generated for FHLO-ECMWF*.

A plot of 50-kt wind exeedance guidance has not yet been generated for FHLO-ECMWF*.

A plot of 64-kt wind exeedance guidance has not yet been generated for FHLO-ECMWF*.

A plot of 83-kt wind exeedance guidance has not yet been generated for FHLO-ECMWF*.

A plot of 96-kt wind exeedance guidance has not yet been generated for FHLO-ECMWF*.

A plot of 34-kt wind exceedance guidance has not yet been generated for FHLO-GEFS*.

A plot of 50-kt wind exeedance guidance has not yet been generated for FHLO-GEFS*.

A plot of 64-kt wind exeedance guidance has not yet been generated for FHLO-GEFS*.

A plot of 83-kt wind exeedance guidance has not yet been generated for FHLO-GEFS*.

A plot of 96-kt wind exeedance guidance has not yet been generated for FHLO-GEFS*.

*The data incorporated herein is generated from the use of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)’s Forecasts of Hurricanes Using Large-ensemble Outputs (FHLO) version 1.50, © MIT, used with permission. All Rights Reserved.


ATCF data files

track and intensity forecasts (a-deck)

history file (b-deck)


Links to Official Warning Information

RSMC Tokyo - Japan Meteorological Agency


Links to External Satellite-based Products

CIRA TC Real-time Page for INVEST 98
UW-CIMSS TC Satellite Products for INVEST 98