Real-time Guidance for ELEVEN (SH11)

This page provides plots and information for ELEVEN (SH11). The left side of this page provides TCGP-generated plots of numerical guidance and other TCGP-curated data. The right side of this page provides external links to additional information and products. Most of the model guidance displayed in the plots come from modeling centers outside of NCAR, such as NOAA, other national numerical weather prediction centers, and universities. Click here for information about who contributes to TCGP. Your use of this page is governed by the UCAR Terms of Service and this site's disclaimer. To obtain help for any item on this page, click on the question mark beside that item.

Information as of the most recent model cycle

At 0600 UTC, 14 March 2023, ELEVEN (SH11) was located in the South-West Indian basin at 17°S and 34.2°E. The current intensity was 20 kt and the center was moving at -999 kt at a bearing of -999 degrees. The minimum central pressure was -999 mb.

Track guidance

Late cycle track guidance
Archive

Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) track guidance and diagnostics

Late cycle GEFS-GEPS-NAVGEM track by EPS
Archive
Extra late GEFS-GEPS-NAVGEM track by EPS
Archive
Late cycle GEFS track by VMAX
Archive
Late cycle GEFS track by MSLP
Archive
Late cycle GEFS track by TIME
Archive
Late cycle GEFS track by Vertical Shear
Archive
Late cycle GEFS track by SST
Archive
Late cycle GEFS track by Potential Intensity
Archive
Late cycle GEFS track by Total Precipitable Water
Archive
Late cycle GEFS track by Low-level Relative Humidity
Archive
Late cycle GEFS track by Mid-level Relative Humidity
Archive
Late cycle GEFS track by Radius of Maximum Wind
Archive
A plot of late cycle GEFS track by Probability of Rapid Intensification by GELOG has not yet been generated.

Intensity guidance

Late cycle intensity guidance
Archive

Probabilistic wind exceedance guidance

A plot of 34-kt wind exceedance guidance has not yet been generated for FHLO-ECMWF*.
A plot of 50-kt wind exeedance guidance has not yet been generated for FHLO-ECMWF*.
A plot of 64-kt wind exeedance guidance has not yet been generated for FHLO-ECMWF*.
A plot of 83-kt wind exeedance guidance has not yet been generated for FHLO-ECMWF*.
A plot of 96-kt wind exeedance guidance has not yet been generated for FHLO-ECMWF*.
34-kt FHLO-GEFS*
Archive
50-kt FHLO-GEFS*
Archive
64-kt FHLO-GEFS*
Archive
83-kt FHLO-GEFS*
Archive
96-kt FHLO-GEFS*
Archive

*The data incorporated herein is generated from the use of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)’s Forecasts of Hurricanes Using Large-ensemble Outputs (FHLO) version 1.50, © MIT, used with permission. All Rights Reserved.

ATCF data files

ash112023.dat
track and intensity forecasts (a-deck)
bsh112023.dat
history file (b-deck)

Links to Official Warning Information

RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France

Warning Threat Map (in French)
Advisory Information (in French)

Additional Information

Products from the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center

JTWC Warning Graphic for ELEVEN
JTWC Warning Text and Prognostic Discussion for ELEVEN

Links to External Satellite-based Products

CIRA TC Real-time Page for ELEVEN

Enhanced Infrared Imagery Loop (4 km Mercator)
Storm Relative Visible Imagery Loop (1 km Geostationary)
AMSU Microwave 89GHz Imagery (4 km Mercator)
Multiplatform Satellite Surface Wind Analysis (Operational)
Multiplatform Satellite Surface Wind Analysis (Experimental)
Aircraft-based Surface Wind Analysis

UW-CIMSS TC Satellite Products for ELEVEN

Satellite Consensus Intensity Estimates   More info
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
ARCHER Center-finding Technique
Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery at CIMSS (MIMIC-TC)

Observations near ELEVEN

   NDBC Ship and Buoy Obs within 300 km

   Mesonet Observations from NWS WRH Hazard Viewer