Test Guidance for HURRICANE MICHAEL (AL14)

NOTE: This page has been generated for testing purposes. It does not provide real-time numerical guidance and other TCGP-curated data.

This page provides plots and information for HURRICANE MICHAEL (AL14). Your use of this page is governed by the UCAR Terms of Service and this site's disclaimer.


Information as of the most recent model cycle

At 1800 UTC, 08 October 2018, HURRICANE MICHAEL (AL14) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 21.7°N and 85.1°W. The current intensity was 70 kt and the center was moving at 8 kt at a bearing of 0 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 978 mb.


Reconnaissance Aircraft Data

No Vortex Data Messages were found for this system.

No High Density Observation Bulletins (HDOBS) were found for this system.


Track guidance

A plot of early cycle track guidance has not yet been generated.

A plot of late cycle track guidance has not yet been generated.


Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) track guidance and diagnostics

A plot of late cycle GEFS-GEPS-NAVGEM track by EPS has not yet been generated.

A plot of the extra late GEFS-GEPS-NAVGEM track by EPS has not yet been generated.

A plot of late cycle GEFS track by MSLP has not yet been generated.

A plot of late cycle GEFS track by TIME has not yet been generated.

A plot of late cycle GEFS track by Vertical Shear has not yet been generated.

A plot of late cycle GEFS track by SST has not yet been generated.

A plot of late cycle GEFS track by Potential Intensity has not yet been generated.

A plot of late cycle GEFS track by Total Precipitable Water has not yet been generated.

A plot of late cycle GEFS track by Low-level Relative Humidity has not yet been generated.

A plot of late cycle GEFS track by Mid-level Relative Humidity has not yet been generated.

A plot of late cycle GEFS track by Radius of Maximum Wind has not yet been generated.

A plot of late cycle GEFS track by Probability of Rapid Intensification by GELOG has not yet been generated.


Intensity guidance

A plot of early cycle guidance has not yet been generated for this system.

A plot of late cycle experimental intensity guidance has not yet been generated for this system.


Probabilistic wind exceedance guidance

A plot of 34-kt wind exceedance guidance has not yet been generated for FHLO-ECMWF*.

A plot of 50-kt wind exeedance guidance has not yet been generated for FHLO-ECMWF*.

A plot of 64-kt wind exeedance guidance has not yet been generated for FHLO-ECMWF*.

A plot of 83-kt wind exeedance guidance has not yet been generated for FHLO-ECMWF*.

A plot of 96-kt wind exeedance guidance has not yet been generated for FHLO-ECMWF*.

A plot of 34-kt wind exceedance guidance has not yet been generated for FHLO-GEFS*.

A plot of 50-kt wind exeedance guidance has not yet been generated for FHLO-GEFS*.

A plot of 64-kt wind exeedance guidance has not yet been generated for FHLO-GEFS*.

A plot of 83-kt wind exeedance guidance has not yet been generated for FHLO-GEFS*.

A plot of 96-kt wind exeedance guidance has not yet been generated for FHLO-GEFS*.

*The data incorporated herein is generated from the use of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)’s Forecasts of Hurricanes Using Large-ensemble Outputs (FHLO) version 1.50, © MIT, used with permission. All Rights Reserved.


ATCF data files

track and intensity forecasts (a-deck)

history file (b-deck)

fixes file (f-deck)




Environmental Diagnostics

A SHIPS diagnostic message is not available.


Links to External Satellite-based Products

CIRA TC Real-time Page for MICHAEL
UW-CIMSS TC Satellite Products for MICHAEL

Links to Radars Within 350 km of MICHAEL

La Bajada, Cuba   Loop

Punta del Este, Cuba   Loop