HWT/DTC 2010 Evaluation - Model Description

Observation

Grid-Stat

MODE

Models

Prob of Exceed (0.5”, 1”, 2” over 3 and 6 hrs)

0.5”, 1”, 2” QPE over 3 and 6 hrs

Brier Score, Decomp of Briar score, Area under ROC, Reliability Diagram

None

Ensemble products from CAPS and SREF

50% Prob of Exceed (0.5”, 1”, 2” over 3 and 6 hrs)

0.5”, 1”, 2” QPE over 3 and 6 hrs

None

Yes
 

Ensemble products from CAPS and SREF

0.25”, 0.5”, 1.0”, 2” QPF over 3 and 6 hrs

0.25”, 0.5”, 1.0”, 2” QPE over 3 and 6 hrs

GSS, CSI, FAR, PODY, FBIAS

Yes

CAPS members, CAPS ens mean, SREF ens mean, HRRR, NAM

Sim. CompositeRefl (20,30,40,50 dBZ)

Q2 Composite refl  (20,30,40,50 dBZ)

GSS, CSI, FAR, PODY, FBIAS

Yes

CAPS members, CAPS ens mean, SREF ens mean, HRRR, NAM

18 dBZ Echo Top (18, 25, 30, 35, 40, 45 kft)

Q2  18dBZ Echo Top (18, 25, 30, 35, 40, 45 kft)

GSS, CSI, FAR, PODY, FBIAS

Yes

CAPS members, CAPS ens mean, SREF ens mean, HRRR, NAM

Prob of 40dBZ echos

Q2 Composite reflectivity (40dBZ)

GSS, CSI, FAR, PODY, FBIAS

None

Ensemble products from CAPS and SREF

50% Prob of 40dBZ echos

Q2 Composite reflectivity (40dBZ)

None

Yes

Ensemble products from CAPS