Real-time (Beta) Guidance for TROPICAL STORM SIXTEEN (SH16)
This page provides plots and information for TROPICAL STORM SIXTEEN (SH16). The left side of this page provides TCGP-generated plots of numerical guidance and other TCGP-curated data. The right side of this page provides external links to additional information and products. Most of the model guidance displayed in the plots come from modeling centers outside of NCAR, such as NOAA, other national numerical weather prediction centers, and universities. Click here for information about who contributes to TCGP. Your use of this page is governed by the UCAR Terms of Service and this site's disclaimer. To obtain help for any item on this page, click on the question mark beside that item.
Information as of the most recent model cycle
At 1200 UTC, 22 January 2026, TROPICAL STORM SIXTEEN (SH16) was located in the South-West Pacific basin at 25.2°S and 172.4°E. The current intensity was 40 kt and the center was moving at 25 kt at a bearing of 115 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb.
Track guidance
Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) track guidance and diagnostics
A plot of late cycle GEFS track by Probability of Rapid Intensification by GELOG has not yet been generated.
Intensity guidance
Probabilistic wind exceedance guidance
A plot of 34-kt wind exceedance guidance has not yet been generated for FHLO-ECMWF*.
A plot of 50-kt wind exeedance guidance has not yet been generated for FHLO-ECMWF*.
A plot of 64-kt wind exeedance guidance has not yet been generated for FHLO-ECMWF*.
A plot of 83-kt wind exeedance guidance has not yet been generated for FHLO-ECMWF*.
A plot of 96-kt wind exeedance guidance has not yet been generated for FHLO-ECMWF*.
A plot of 34-kt wind exceedance guidance has not yet been generated for FHLO-GEFS*.
A plot of 50-kt wind exeedance guidance has not yet been generated for FHLO-GEFS*.
A plot of 64-kt wind exeedance guidance has not yet been generated for FHLO-GEFS*.
A plot of 83-kt wind exeedance guidance has not yet been generated for FHLO-GEFS*.
A plot of 96-kt wind exeedance guidance has not yet been generated for FHLO-GEFS*.
*The data incorporated herein is generated from the use of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)’s Forecasts of Hurricanes Using Large-ensemble Outputs (FHLO) version 1.50, © MIT, used with permission. All Rights Reserved.
ATCF data files
track and intensity forecasts (a-deck)
history file (b-deck)
Links to Official Warning Information
TCWC Wellington - Meteorological Service of New Zealand Ltd
Additional Information
Products from the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Links to External Satellite-based Products
CIRA TC Real-time Page for SIXTEEN
UW-CIMSS TC Satellite Products for SIXTEEN
Observations near SIXTEEN